The Mongrel Dogs Who Teach

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  • Clinton’s New Hampshire victory: What does it mean?

    Short answer: A whole lot less than the punditocracy would like you to believe.

    Long answer: Oh, my goodness, people. Could we all just stop with the wild oscillations from day to day? No one in their right mind believed the polls showing Obama up by double digits in a single week. Clinton didn’t score a “comeback” because she didn’t go away: She has been strong in NH for the past year. Until a couple of weeks ago, Clinton had a 20 point edge on Obama and yet she won the state by only 2 points. How is that a comeback?

    But what about all those polls showing the “Obama bounce”? They were ludicrous to believe. It takes time for actual views to shift, but polls are sensitive to short-period trends and, especially, news coverage. All of a sudden, after winning Iowoa, Obama was everywhere on the news. Of course his numbers ticked up.

    Did Clinton “save” her candidacy by shedding a tear or by performing well at the debate or by saber-rattling? No, she “saved” it by having a strong organization in a friendly state. For five days, her supporters have been yelling at us that no one should count her out — correctly. But after castigating everyone for misinterpreting Iowa, they are exultantly misinterpreting New Hampshire. Excluding the post-Iowa media insanity, things turned out about as would be expected — indeed, I think Obama did better than anyone would have said just four weeks ago. (I mourn that my guy Edwards did not stage the upset that would truly have been an upset.)

    Anyone with technical experience knows you don’t trust the gauge until it’s had time to settle down. Trying to spin Obama’s bounce into a steamroller mandate was silly. Trying to spin Clinton’s just-barely-held victory in a state she’d expected to win handily into a comeback of epic proportions… well, that’s just mendacious.

  • The Impact of Tears

    OK, so today during a campaign stop Hilary Clinton apparently teared up and allowed emotion into her voice. (See here for more if you need to.) And then John Edwards replied , “I think what we need in a commander-in-chief is strength and resolve, and presidential campaigns are tough business, but being president of the United States is also tough business”. Now the blogosphere is abuzz with how unfair this has been to Senator Clinton and how if anyone else shows emotion, it’s depth but for her, it’s a breakdown and why is Edwards so mean? and…

    Personally, I don’t think Clinton’s teary moment is a big deal. It’s been a long campaign, it hasn’t gone her way lately, and, win or lose, this is the capstone of her career. I think it’s entirely forgivable if she has a vulnerable moment and allows some of that to leak through. Here’s what I don’t get: Edwards has been campaigning just as long and just as hard. It’s pretty much the last act of his career, too. He’s seen Hilary crowned as the inevitable candidate and Barack as the “change” candidate, while the national press has ignored his message and focused on his haircut. Why isn’t it conceivable that his comment also reflects exhaustion and snappishness rather than a deep flaw?

    I admit, I’m an Edwards supporter. But the reaction coverage seems genuinely out of line here. She was weak for a moment and let slip some tears. He was weak for a moment and snarked her. It’s passed, now, people.

  • Review: Charlie Wilson’s War

    Charlie Wilson’s War
    screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
    starring Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman

    InstaRating: 5+ stars out of 5
    It took less than five minutes for this film to remind me why I miss Aaron Sorkin on TV.

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  • Everyone else is doing it…

    …. so I guess I’m obligated to post on the Iowa caucuses. This is straight political opinion, so bail out if you don’t want to hear me blather.

    At the moment I’m writing it looks like Obama has pulled off a significant first-place tally with Clinton and Edwards more or less tying for second. I cannot say I am unpleased with that, though Edwards is my guy in this fight and I had hoped he’d take first. On the other hand, a lot of people seemed to be counting him out at Thanksgiving, so I guess it’s not a bad showing. I am happy that the presumptive Clinton steamroller got derailed, because while I’d vote for any of these Democrats over any of the Republicans in the field, I am least enthusiastic about Clinton.
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  • Real Leadership

    “Leadership” is a word tossed around a lot today, especially by those who evidence none of it. But today, in the United States Senate, Christopher Dodd (D-CT) stood up for the rule of law and demonstrated the sort of leadership that once made this nation great. Faced with Harry Reid’s inexplicable kowtowing to the forces of secrecy and intimidation, Dodd first placed a hold on the awful Senate Intelligence Committee bill to “fix” FISA (by, for example, exempting telecom companies from liability). When Reid ignored that (despite centuries of tradition), Dodd fought an underhanded rule change and then signaled his intent to filibuster the bad bill with all his strength.

    How strongly did he feel? He abandoned the Iowa campaign route not three weeks before the caucuses. Let’s repeat that: He gave up his campaign, temporarily, so that he could return to Washington and do his job securing the rights and liberties of American citizens. There are three other Democratic Senators running for office; none of them did the same. I’m looking at you, Clinton, Obama, Biden. People will remember who acted and who only talked about acting.

    I’m not in Dodd’s camp, but I just went online to make a contribution to his campaign. Let’s keep him in the race — let’s help him keep the others honest.

  • What better summary of the past seven years…

    … than the following quote?

    If at the top, the message that’s sent is, “We’re going to bend the rules to our advantage,” the message is clearly understood and creates a culture of attempting to avoid the rules.
    — Steven L. Schooner, a procurement law expert at George Washington University Law School

    Mr. Schooner (quoted in this New York Times article) was speaking with regard to the suicide of Chuck Riechers, the Air Force’s top procurement officer after becoming embroiled in a scandal. In this case, the rules-bending involved having a private contractor pay Mr. Riecher’s salary while he awaited formal confirmation for his new job.

    But really, doesn’t it just capture the spirit of this benighted administration in toto?

  • Health of the Republic: Down 3% to 12%

    Calling Orwell…. Calling George Orwell… Or maybe Kafka is a better target. US military prosecutors have asked for — and now have been granted — a blanket order preventing the defense counsel of a Gitmo detainee from discussing the identity of any prosecution witness with anyone, the defendant included. The defense argues (correctly!) that this contrary to typical process in American courts, not to mention an affront to the values embodied in the Constitution. The prosecution argues that there is absolutely no attempt to hide the operation of the trial from public scrutiny.

    This would be more convincing if the prosecution hadn’t made that argument via a series of emails explicitly meant, themselves, to be secret.

    Secret trials. Secret witnesses. Collusion between judge and prosecutor to achieve a result result politically useful for the present party. Prisoners whisked off to a legal limbo far removed from the usual apparatus of justice. I would have sworn that the Unites States had beaten the USSR in the Cold War. Now it turns out we just stole their methods. Yay, democracy!

  • Proud of My Congressman

    How often do you get to write a headline like that these days? I happen to be served by Rush Holt (Democrat and former nuclear physicist), and Congressman Holt has been — unlike almost all of his peers — quite active in protecting the rights and the security of all Americans. To be colloquial, Rush really has his head screwed on right. The national party would do well to listen more to him and people like him — people who recognize that caving into Republican demagoguery is about the only thing that can guarantee defeat. It’s bad for the party and it’s bad for the nation.

    As an example, I offer this piece written by Holt to refute pernicious “mistakes” proffered by Joe Klein and his ilk, about the RESTORE Act that seeks to redress the current imbalance of power wielded by shadowy and unaccountable officers. I’d suggest checking it out.

  • Worthy of note

    Just another “me-too” blog post 🙁 but I saw this at Talking Points Memo and thought it worthy of being flagged. My God, has there ever been a worse administration? What we know makes them as the worst ever, and now we see, there’s a whole lot they’re trying to make sure we never know…

  • Review: Marc Cohn at the Highline Ballroom

    As is my wont whenever Marc Cohn wanders into the New York-Philadelphia corridor, I went to see him perform — this time, at the Highline Ballroom in lower Manhattan. True to form, it was a fantastic show with Marc the consummate showman. The opening act was Amy Correia and this time, Marc played with a full band.

    More below the fold.

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